Tulsa Oilers at Sioux Falls Storm
Sunday, April 14th @ 3:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Sioux Falls -1.5
 
The Storm have had a bit of a disappointing start to their 2024 season as they've fallen in both of their first two games this year. They lost in overtime in week one in a 32-38 overtime loss to the Quad City Steamwheelers and then lost by eight to the Massachusetts Pirates in week three before their bye last week.
 
Both of their early games were on the road, however, and the Storm are finally at home as they play the 1-1 Tulsa Oilers in a game that they are actually favored to win. By a close margin of -1.5, the Storm are the favorite in their home opener.
 
The Storm were 6-2 at home last season, with all six of their wins being over 1.5 points. This was a much better result than their 5-4 record away from the Denny Sanford Premier Center, and this track record of home success should continue against an Oilers team that was 1-6 on the road last season.
 
Best bet: Storm -1.5
 
O/U: 77.5
 
After a low-scoring first few weeks in the IFL (only 63 total points per game in week 2), the scoring exploded in week 3 (95.2 total points per game in week 3) before settling back down last week (82 total points per game in week 4). I expect 82 points to be the standard for this season, perhaps even a little higher, potentially 85 points being the season average.
 
With last week's total at 82 and the expected average at 85, we can see that the expectation for this game is for it to be low-scoring. The Storm have averaged 36.5 points per game, and the Oilers have averaged 32 points per game for a total of 68.5 points per game, nearly ten points lower than the predicted O/U of 77.5.
 
Last season, the Storm scored eight more points at home than on the road (51 points scored in home games compared to just 43 scored in away games) and gave up virtually the same amount of points on the road compared to at home (43.66 and 43.75 points given up respectively).
 
With that being said, it is clear that the stats side with this game just coming up shy of the 77.5 O/U, but so far this season, the stats have led me astray. So, I'm going with my gut. I think both of these teams will break out of their early scoring slumps, and we will see a lot of offense.
 
Best bet: Over 77.5 points
 
 

Other games this week
 
Iowa Barnstormers at Massachusetts Pirates
Friday, April 12 @ 6:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Massachusetts -14.5
O/U: 81.5
 
The 0-2 Barnstormers will head to the east coast to play the 3-0 Pirates in a game where they appear to be overmatched by a far superior team. The Barnstormers have the worst offensive passing efficiency in the league compared to the Pirates, who have the second-best passing efficiency in the league. This has led to a miserable 27.5-point average for them on offense compared to the Pirates, who scored 39.7 points per game on offense.
 
What the Barnstormers do have going for them is a decent run game, averaging 4.1 yards per carry (6th in the league) behind QB Darius Peterson and RB Rob Washington. This is a higher average than the Pirates (3.6 yards per carry), who have the most rushing attempts in the league with star RB Jimmie Robinson.
 
Overall, if the Barnstormers can lean on their running game and lean off their league-worst passing attack (Peterson has the worst completion percentage of any starting QB), they can stay competitive in this game and avoid losing by more than 14.5 points.
 
Best bet: Iowa +14.5

 
 
San Antonio Gunslingers at Vegas Knight Hawks
Friday, April 12 @ 9:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Vegas -7.5
O/U: 102.5
 
102.5 is a super high O/U, but it is absolutely appropriate for this game. This is a perfect storm of scoring factors that could lead to a massive number on the scoreboard by the end of this one. The Gunslingers were the highest-scoring team in the league early this season, with 109 points over two games for a 55.5-point average, and they also have the worst defense, allowing 129 points over two games for an average of 64.5 points allowed per game.
 
The Knight Hawks are also known for their high-powered offense, as they have gained the most yards per play this season with 6.6 YPG, way above the Panthers, who have the second-best YPG this season with 5.9. They also have the second-best running game in the league, averaging 116.5 yards and 3 TDs per game behind QB Ja'Rom Johnson (7.7 yards per carry, third in the league) and RB Taurean Taylor (5.4 yards per carry, ninth in the league).
 
While the Knight Hawks score points mostly on the ground, the Gunslingers do it mainly through the air. San Antonio boasts the second-best pass game in the league, right behind the Strike Force. They've scored nine times through the air in two games and have averaged 165 passing yards per game behind the QB play of Sam Castronova (he has a league-best 200.2 passing efficiency). With numbers like that, I think a high-scoring game is almost guaranteed.
 
Best bet: Over 102.5
 
 
 
Quad City Steamwheelers at Frisco Fighters
Saturday, April 13 @ 7:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Frisco -11.5
O/U: 84.5
 
There is an underappreciated stat in this matchup that could be a very powerful indicator of what will happen in this game. 1st downs allowed per game is a stat that is somewhat buried in the IFL stat book but could be a huge identifier of defensive strength for each team. The IFL is an offensive-driven league, but defense is what makes the difference in terms of betting on the over/under. If teams can limit the opposition's ability to drive downfield and move the chains, we could see a low-scoring game; if they can't, we could see a high-scoring game.
 
The first downs allowed per game stat in this matchup tells us a very evident story. These two teams rank as the best two teams in limiting 1st downs per game. The Fighters allow only 12.5 1st downs per game, and the Steamwheelers allow only 13.3, which means these two teams are not giving up sustained drives throughout the game. They do give up big plays occasionally, but they keep their opponents out of rhythm. This is partly because both of these teams are great at forcing opponent penalties. Both teams are in the top half of the league in opposing team penalties.
 
With this trend of disrupting the opposing offenses, I expect this game to be low-scoring.
 
Best bet: Under 84.5

 
 
San Diego Strike Force at Arizona Rattlers
Sunday, April 14 @ 5:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Arizona -2.5
O/U: 96.5
 
This will be the Rattlers 4th game of the season and their second game at home. They have put up good stats, around the top half in the league in most major statistical categories, but they've lost their last two games by close margins. First, they lost to the Knight Hawks by two at home, and then they lost to the Panthers by six points on the road before getting a bye last week.
 
The Strike Force has had, far and away, the best passing attack in the league, capitalizing on their 204 passing yards and five passing TDs per game to race to a 2-0 record to start the season. Along with their dominant passing attack, they also have the best defense in the league, allowing only 144 yards per game in the first two matchups.
 
The Strike Force seems to be the better of the two teams, and I think they could get the win despite the Rattler's home-field advantage. Even if they don't win, I can't imagine they'd lose by three or more.
 
Best Bet: Strike Force +2.5
 
Bay Area Panthers at Tucson Sugar Skulls
Sunday, April 14 @ 5:05 PM CT
 
Spread: Bay Area -7
O/U: 95.5
 
The 2-0 Bay Area Panthers will go to Tucson to play the 1-1 Sugar Skulls on Sunday against two teams that know how to put points up in a hurry.
 
The Sugar Skulls scored 48 points in their opening game loss against the Wranglers before beating the Duke City Gladiators last week in a game where they scored 56 points; both of those games were 100+ total point games.
 
The Panthers scored 47 points in their first game against the Rattlers before scoring 48 points last week against the Jacksonville Sharks. The Panthers won both games and will come into this game as the favorites as well, but with the high-scoring power of the Sugar Skulls early this season, I'm not too sure how safe of a bet the Panthers will be this week. The over, however, does seem to be a safe bet this week as these two high-powered offenses match up for what should be a thrilling competition.
 
Best bet: Over 95.5